SWOD48
SPC AC 080859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT WED OCT 08 2008
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4-5
GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND MODELS INCLUDING THE
MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5 WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER PATTERN. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH SURFACE
PATTERN REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT WILL SURGE DAY 4-5. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE WRN U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER ERN STATES.
AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT THROUGH
WRN TX BY DAY 5. STRONGER FORCING WILL LIKELY REMAIN POST FRONTAL
OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEWD EJECTING
UPPER JET. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT
REGIME OVER WRN TX AND FARTHER NORTH ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT
WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS. CONCERNS LINGER REGARDING DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL GIVEN
EXPECTED MODEST LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH RETURNING MOISTURE. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT AND SWD ADVANCE OF FRONTAL SURGE PRECLUDES AN OUTLOOK
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR
A POSSIBLE RISK AREA IN THE NEXT 4-8 ISSUANCE.
...DAY 6-8...
MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY DAY 6...BUT GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD
THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY LEAVING A WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED ALONG NRN PART OF THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE
TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY HIGH AT
THIS TIME. BEYOND DAY 6 POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 10/08/2008
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