DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090859
SWOD48
SPC AC 090859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT THU OCT 09 2008

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...

DAY 4

UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT NE THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS
ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY WITH STRONGEST FORCING
REMAINING ON COOL SIDE OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH W OR SW KS AND SW NM
EARLY IN THE DAY. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL HAVE ADVECTED NWD
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WITH MORE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER
NE ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS WHERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW REGIME AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MODEST GIVEN WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CLOUDS. HOWEVER...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

OTHER MORE FORCED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FARTHER NE OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY ALONG AND BEHIND SEWD ADVANCING FRONT.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT
THREAT IN THIS REGION IS MORE CONDITIONAL GIVEN EXPECTED WEAK
THERMODYNAMICS. IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...A RISK AREA MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

DAY 5

CONVECTION WILL PERSIST IN FRONTAL ZONE...BUT INSTABILITY ALONG NRN
PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL WHERE STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SRN PLAINS...THE
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE STRONGER UPPER FLOW. THOUGH SOME
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MIGHT PERSIST...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MAINTAIN A RISK AREA.

DAY 6-8

SEVERE THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.

..DIAL.. 10/09/2008

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.