SWOD48
SPC AC 190853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2008
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF AND GFS SIMILAR WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE LARGE-SCALE
FEATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH DIFFERENCES INCREASE BEYOND
DAY 6.
IN GENERAL...A LARGE/SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED/SLOW-MOVING SURFACE SYSTEM.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH LOW-LEVEL SLYS ADVECTING
SOME GULF MOISTURE NWD WITH THE EXISTING WARM SECTOR. WEAK LAPSE
RATES SHOULD...HOWEVER...ACT TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
VERTICALLY-STACKED SYSTEM. THUS...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM.
..GOSS.. 10/19/2008
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