SWOD48
SPC AC 210900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS FORECAST THAT THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL
AND ERN CONUS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN OVER THE ERN GULF DAY 4 /FRI. OCT. 24/...AND
THEN SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES THROUGH
DAY 5. WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THIS SYSTEM DAYS 4-5...WEAK LAPSE RATES -- AND THUS LIMITED
INSTABILITY -- SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...LITTLE SEVERE THREAT IS EVIDENT AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF THE CONUS.
..GOSS.. 10/21/2008
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