SWOD48
SPC AC 240906
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2008
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER CONSISTENT THROUGH D5
/TUE OCT 28TH/ IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN N
AMERICA/WRN ATLANTIC AND RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION.
THIS CONFIGURATION WILL RESULT A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PERSISTING
OVER THE ERN U.S. INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WRN CONUS...THOUGH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA SETS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. THE
LATEST ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS
TROUGH WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
THIS MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS NOT SUPPORTED BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE ECMWF WITH A SLOWER TROUGH MOVEMENT CURRENTLY PREFERRED. AS
SUCH...ANY SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN /AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT/ WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
..MEAD.. 10/24/2008
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