SWOD48
SPC AC 290801
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2008
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION UNTIL ABOUT D7 /TUE NOV 4TH/ WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST
WILL BE BROAD...UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS
THE WRN STATES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CNTRL U.S. BY D7. AT THE
SAME TIME....AN UPPER LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH THIS FEATURE SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD WITH THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM
TROUGH.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE NRN OR
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY D6 /MON NOV 3RD/ WITH THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEMS SHIFTING EWD INTO THE PLAINS ON D7. HOWEVER...
PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL TEND TO INHIBIT THE RETURN OF A FULLY MODIFIED AIR MASS
TO THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON D7 AND D8 /WED NOV
5TH/ GIVEN THE INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RETURN /AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY/ AND OVERALL TROUGH EVOLUTION.
THEREFORE...NO SEVERE WEATHER AREA WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED.
..MEAD.. 10/29/2008
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