SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081514
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-081715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CDT WED OCT 08 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL..SW GA...FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 081514Z - 081715Z
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WITH A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
BRIEF TORNADO. A SMALL SLIGHT RISK WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO THE DAY 1
OUTLOOK AT 1630Z.
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S F CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE UPPER
FORCING...WHERE 850 MB WINDS VEER TO WLY. FARTHER INLAND...AN AXIS
OF RELATIVELY STABLE SURFACE AIR CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F EXISTS OVER FAR ERN AL INTO WRN
GA.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES E...SOME AIR MASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
OVER ERN AL AND WRN GA...AS WELL AS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR STORM ROTATION. OVERALL DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS DO NOT FAVOR
PARTICULARLY LONG LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT PERIODIC
MESOCYCLONE FORMATION...WITH BRIEF TORNADOES...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK MID LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S F ARE NEEDED TO MAXIMIZE THE SEVERE
THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 10/08/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
30338704 31218657 32118626 32758607 32738552 32168493
31628454 30998423 30468408 29888420 29628457 29568506
29638535 29938545 30138592 30258627 30358669
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