SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091252
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-091415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2320
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT THU OCT 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN FL/SOUTHEAST GA INTO FAR SOUTHERN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091252Z - 091415Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FL/SOUTHEAST GA INTO FAR SOUTHERN SC THIS
MORNING. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED IN THE SHORT
TERM...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS CLOSED/NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER
LOW SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER IS NOTED AROUND 700 MB IN
THE 12Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM TALLAHASSEE...COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /AROUND -13C AT 500 MB PER 12Z ATLANTA OBSERVED RAOB/
ATOP A WARMING/RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT A
GRADUAL UPSWING IN TSTM VIGOR THROUGH THE MORNING. BENEATH A BELT OF
30-40 KT MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS AS TSTM CLUSTERS/LINES /PERHAPS A
FEW BRIEF SUPERCELLS/ DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT SUCH A THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY VEERING
FLOW ALOFT/WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.
..GUYER.. 10/09/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
32948229 32908151 31948109 30028194 30048346 30878359
31818274
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