MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2323

ACUS11 KWNS 110223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110223
NMZ000-AZZ000-110400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN AZ/SWRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 110223Z - 110400Z

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER
EXTREME SERN AZ/SWRN NM. LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT SHOULD
PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEAR-TERM...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

AS OF 0215Z...SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS EXTENDED FROM AROUND 25 S FHU
TO 20 W DUG. THE LEAD STORM DEPICTED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WITH
INTERMITTENT YET PERSISTENT ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVELS WHILE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN SONORA PRIOR TO WEAKENING AS IT CROSSED THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS LED TO AN INFLUX OF
SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S /AS OBSERVED BY ASOS
AND MESONET SITES THIS EVENING IN SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES
AZ/. ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE BUOYANCY IS LIKELY STILL WEAK /MODIFIED 00Z
TUS RAOB SUGGESTIVE OF MUCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG/...RELATIVELY STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND
GIVEN A FAVORABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE /EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
30-40 KT/.

..GRAMS.. 10/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

31361087 32251051 32880957 32870847 32500811 31820816
31320826

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