SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120146
KSZ000-COZ000-120315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2331
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO AND WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 120146Z - 120315Z
TAIL-END OF A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING NWD INTO SRN CO
THIS EVENING WILL GRAZE THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY MORNING
SUNDAY. CONCOMMITMENT INCREASE IN THE H85-H7 SSWLY LLJ OF 50-55 KTS
WILL ACT TO MAINTAIN NEAR 60 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS OVER THE REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A PLUME OF
STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL EDGE EWD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS BY
06Z...YIELDING MODEST DESTABILIZATION.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND GIVEN ONLY MODEST
BUOYANCY...ANY SUPERCELL THREAT WOULD BE BRIEF. HOWEVER...BOWS AND
SMALL SCALE LEWPS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AND DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
RISKS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME. IN FACT...RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EFFECTIVE PARCELS WILL BE ROOTED AT OR VERY
NEAR THE SFC THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND GIVEN 250+ M2/S2 0-1KM SRH
AND MOIST LOW-LVLS...A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
A WW MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO AND WRN KS.
..RACY.. 10/12/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...
37090427 39900167 39740036 38120005 37050062
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