SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212034
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-212200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 212034Z - 212200Z
AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD ACROSS NCNTRL CO...THE
THREAT FOR HAIL WILL LIKELY INCREASE. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE REACHING FAR ERN CO AND WRN KS A BY EARLY EVENING WHERE
WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER SE WY WITH A SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN CO. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS PRESENT
SEWD ACROSS SW NEB INTO WRN KS AND NRN OK. BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
FRONT...AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXISTS WHERE SBCAPE VALUES HAVE
REACHED THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND IN THE PALMER
DIVIDE WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF A RUC
ANALYZED VORT MAX IN NCNTRL CO. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE ERN
PLAINS OF CO...CONVECTION WILL DEEPEN AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. THIS
COMBINED WITH ABOUT 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE GOODLAND
AND DENVER WSR-88D VWPS ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS OF
-16 TO -18C/ SHOULD SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGER HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED NEAR THE
CO-KS STATE-LINE EARLY THIS EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 10/21/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 38000170 38300294 39090391 39750397 40640381 40960350
41100309 41050251 40300204 38860113 38000170
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