SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230102
NEZ000-KSZ000-230700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2341
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL NE / NWRN KS
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 230102Z - 230700Z
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF 1+ IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 05-06Z OVER
PARTS OF S-CENTRAL NE THEN EXTENDING SWWD INTO NWRN KS.
A CLOSED 500MB LOW WILL DEEPEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER
CENTRAL KS AS DEEP ASCENT /AMPLE UVV/S/ RETROGRADE WWD OVER THE
REGION. RECENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER PARTS OF
S-CENTRAL NE. DIURNAL COOLING IN COMBINATION WITH DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT WILL AID IN THE LIKELY CHANGEOVER FROM A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT
TO ALL SNOW. A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE 00Z/23 AND 12Z/22 LBF RAOB
SHOWS THE PROFILE HAS COOLED ALOFT ABOVE 55OMB...STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES. 15Z NAMKF SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WWD OVERNIGHT FROM NEAR HSI AT 04Z TO NEAR LBF AROUND 11Z.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO WEAKEN...HOWEVER
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MESOSCALE BANDING /CSI/ TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1+ IN/HR WILL BE
COMMON WITHIN BANDS.
STRONG SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS /30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ WILL AID IN
POSSIBLY CREATING NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WHERE VSBLY/S
ARE LOWEST IN CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS.
..SMITH.. 10/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 40799881 40209881 39809899 39659953 39689987 39800010
40000034 40320063 40700082 41250091 41620081 42150037
42739955 42759899 42629868 41919877 41489884 41009887
40799881
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