MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2342

ACUS11 KWNS 252045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252044
NCZ000-VAZ000-252215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2342
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC THROUGH SE VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252044Z - 252215Z

MOSTLY LOW TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NERN NC THROUGH SE VA
MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ANY
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY MARGINAL AND A WW WILL NOT LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SWD THROUGH
CNTRL VA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES SWD
THROUGH E CNTRL NC. WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR THE OUTER BANKS
OF NC NWWD THROUGH NERN VA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE OCCLUDED FRONT. A
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WAS INDICATED FROM CNTRL COASTAL NC
SWD INTO THE WARM OFFSHORE WATERS.

SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AN AXIS OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS HAS ADVECTED THROUGH ERN NC AND SE VA. CLOUDS
HAVE MIXED OUT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NC WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 70S. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL DUE TO
POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RUC AND NAM KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN INVERSION PRESENT NEAR 700 MB WITH DRY AIR IN THE 700-500 MB
LAYER. STRONGER AND DEEPER FORCING ATTENDING THE POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THOUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WILL REMAIN NORTH
AND WEST OF THE WARM SECTOR. THIS SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
ALONG COLD FRONT AND ANY PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN TOO
SHALLOW TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION AND DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS OF
MID LEVEL DRY ENTRAINMENT. THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD MAINTAIN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEPER MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION. MOST CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN
SHALLOW WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. MOREOVER...THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA.

..DIAL.. 10/25/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 37487687 37197639 36087583 35537588 35197694 35697785
36297781 36717758 37347730 37487687

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