SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312226
ARZ000-OKZ000-312330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WCNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 923...
VALID 312226Z - 312330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 923
CONTINUES.
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING IF SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN INITIATE. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS SFC TEMPS COOL.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE OZARKS. THE RUC SUGGESTS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS QUITE FOCUSED AND MOVING SEWD OVER A MOIST AXIS
ORIENTED SSW TO NNE FROM SE OK INTO SCNTRL MO. THIS IS SUPPORTING
WEAKLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN CNTRL AND NRN OK ATTM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN WCNTRL AR EARLY THIS EVENING SUGGEST THE CAPPING
INVERSION WILL WEAKEN AND SFC-BASED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS APPEARS LESS LIKELY. MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE TULSA AND TEXARKANA PROFILERS AND 500
MB TEMPS AROUND -16C WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL IF SFC-BASED STORMS
CAN INITIATE.
..BROYLES.. 10/31/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 34149266 34169303 34249309 34289323 34339336 34379425
34219424 34219447 34529445 34519491 34689489 34699503
34829504 34989491 35229490 35229481 35389479 35399466
35299463 35339445 35479434 35379425 35389412 35479401
35579407 35699400 35799385 35729332 35719264 35819265
35799239 35709241 35709221 35379224 35389245 35169252
34969260 34919273 34919273 34839270 34809261 34699257
34619235 34569222 34489222 34509235 34459241 34459259
34409265 34149266
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