SWODY1
SPC AC 111628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2008
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S CENTRAL/SE TX AND WRN
LA THROUGH TONIGHT...
...S CENTRAL/SE TX INTO WRN LA THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER KS/NEB WILL MOVE NEWD TO IA WHILE AN
UPSTREAM WAVE OVER SRN AZ PROGRESSES EWD TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD INTO SE TX
AS OF MID MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE
COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO SE TX...WHERE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THE WARM SECTOR BASED ON REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS AND VWP/S...AND IT IS UNLIKELY TO INCREASE TODAY IN THE
ABSENCE OF CYCLOGENESIS. THUS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
PRIMARY THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS...WHILE
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY. ANY TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL AND
DRIVEN LARGELY BY STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS.
THE BAND OF CONVECTION WILL NOT CLEAR SE TX BEFORE THE AREA COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN AZ.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT INCREASES FROM S CENTRAL INTO SE TX...WHERE ONE OR MORE
ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED. A CONTINUED WEAKNESS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR...IN COMBINATION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /ASSOCIATED WITH 50-60 KT SWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW/...WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED OVERNIGHT THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 11/11/2008
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