SWODY1
SPC AC 141245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2008
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER MOST OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE...A SMALLER UPPER
LOW IS TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND APPROACHING
SOUTHEAST LA. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT IN
WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF FL/GA/SC.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE DEVELOPED...WHICH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS FL AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GA TODAY. INCREASING LARGE
SCALE FORCING TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL FURTHER
INCREASE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 12Z RAOBS AND MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
ALONG PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER BOWS/CELLS ACROSS THE
REGION. RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO LIKELY LIMIT
THE OVERALL RISK OF HAIL. CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...WHERE RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE CAPE WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN GA AND SOUTHEAST AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS
REGION WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...AND AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE LOW. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.
..HART/SMITH.. 11/14/2008
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