SWODY1
SPC AC 200523
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE HOSTILE FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WA/ORE COAST AND OVER
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES.
LATE EVENING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD INLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT THICKNESS COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD
ONSHORE...GIVEN THE WLY CONVERGENT POST FRONTAL WIND REGIME...FOR
CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
VERY COLD AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER SERN CANADA INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
FOR SHALLOW LAKE CONVECTION. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST
SOME MINIMAL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING WITH GREATEST CONCENTRATION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE LAKES. EVEN SO LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN
TOO SPARSE FOR A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.
..DARROW/JEWELL.. 11/20/2008
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