SWODY1
SPC AC 021613
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST SUN NOV 02 2008
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
A VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NV IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LOCATED AT 15Z FROM E OF A LINE
FROM PIH/ENV/ELY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF TROUGH IN CONCERT WITH
SWLY FLOW OF MOIST/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE PCPN FROM ERN ID SWD THRU UT/ERN NV.
WHILE LITTLE HEATING EXPECTED ACROSS UT GIVEN THE OBSERVED EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT AHEAD OF FRONT IN
UT REFLECTING BOTH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY/MDTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. OBSERVED GRADIENT WINDS TO 40KT ALONG/AHEAD OF
FROPA COUPLED WITH CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW GUSTS AOA 50KT ACROSS UT INTO WRN CO/SWRN WY
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONGER CORES GIVEN THE 7C/KM LAPSE RATES AND COOLER AIR
ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE S/WV TROUGH. THE FROPA SHOULD OCCUR ALONG
WASATCH FRONT BETWEEN 18-20Z.
...FL...
NRN GULF UPR LOW WILL APPROACH THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTN...
ENHANCING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN REGION OF RELATIVELY MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS/. NELY LOW LVL
TRAJECTORIES OUT OF WRN ATLANTIC SFC RIDGE SHOULD...HOWEVER...KEEP
LOW LVL LAPSE RATES FAIRLY WEAK...LIMITING OVERALL DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FAVORABLY-
TIMED SFC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FROM N CNTRL FL S/SW TO NEAR TPA/FMY.
MODERATE DEEP SHEAR MAY YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS ALONG THE FL W
CST...AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF OCCURRENCE OR
TWO OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. OVERALL PATTERN...HOWEVER...DOES NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR.
...GRT LKS...
LOW LVL TRAJECTORIES FROM COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH SERN
CANADA WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF MN UPR IMPULSE. SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW SPOTS OF ISOLD ELEVATED
CONVECTION/THUNDER.
..HALES/SCHNEIDER.. 11/02/2008
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