SWODY1
SPC AC 241951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST MON NOV 24 2008
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD...DOMINATED BY RIDGING OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND TROUGHING ACROSS GREAT LAKES. MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- INITIALLY
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF MN ARROWHEAD -- WILL DIG
SEWD ACROSS LS AND LM TOWARD INDIANA/OH THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER DELTA REGION...
BAND OF SCATTERED TSTMS IS FCST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
REGION...WEAKENING WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND FROM N-S AS
FOREGOING/INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE. THIS
STABILIZATION WILL RESULT FROM TWO PROCESSES...
1. DIABATIC SFC COOLING NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET AND
2. PRESENCE OF MORE INCOMPLETELY MODIFIED...LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY
LAYER TRAJECTORIES WITH EWD/NEWD EXTENT.
MEANWHILE...HOWEVER...MRGL PROBABILITIES CONTINUE FOR DAMAGING
CONVECTIVE GUSTS -- PRIMARILY FROM SFC-BASED BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS
SUCH AS THE ONE WHICH PRODUCED 52 KT GUST AT MCB AT 1936Z. PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...HOWEVER COLD FRONT MAY CATCH
UP TO THIS BOUNDARY WITH TIME. CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG COLD
FRONT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT BECOMES LESS PROBABLE WITH TIME
GIVEN LACK OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DOMINANCE OF PRIMARY BAND OF
TSTMS TO ITS SE.
AHEAD OF TSTM LINE...CURRENT VWP PROFILER DATA...ALONG WITH MODIFIED
RUC/NAM-KF SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES IN SUPPORT OF MAINTAINING QUASI-LINEAR DOMINANT MODE TO
CONVECTION. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...SUFFICIENT DIABATIC
HEATING WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS TO MAINTAIN MLCAPE
250-500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF 5% WIND OUTLOOK AREA...AMIDST 30-35 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2008
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