SWODY1
SPC AC 111926
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2008
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SE TX...PERHAPS INTO WRN LA....
...PARTS OF CNTRL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW
LIFTING ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BUT...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER REMAINS MOIST...PARTICULARLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THROUGH THE UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL PLAIN INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. AND...THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES.
THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... BUT IT
APPEARS AT LEAST A WEAK INCREASE IN FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT PRIOR TO 12/00Z.
THIS MAY INVIGORATE ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR/WEST THROUGH NORTH OF
HOUSTON...AND SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND WITHIN
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BANDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH COULD AID UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
COASTAL PLAIN INTO/THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE SEVERE
RISK BEGINS TO WANE AS RADIATIONAL COOLING GRADUALLY STABILIZES THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.
..KERR.. 11/11/2008
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