SWODY1
SPC AC 241259
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST MON NOV 24 2008
VALID 241300Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WRN ONTARIO UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS
LATER TODAY...PHASE WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE SRN
PLNS....AND ULTIMATELY RE-ESTABLISH A LARGER SCALE TROUGH/UPR LOW
OVER THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LKS. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT FROM
INTENSIFYING LOW NOW OVER IL WILL ACCELERATE ESE ACROSS THE OH...TN
AND LWR MS VLYS LATER TODAY...AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z TUESDAY.
...LWR MS VLY/GULF CST...
ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN WAA ZONE
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE OVER THE CNTRL
GULF CST/LWR MS VLY. CURRENT SATELLITE...SFC...AND VWP DATA SUGGEST
THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL EXPERIENCE AT BEST ONLY MODEST
RECOVERY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE STRONGEST WAA AND DPVA WILL SHIFT
NEWD AWAY FROM THE GULF CST/LWR MS VLY AS UPR SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES
OVER THE GRT LKS. COUPLED WITH LIMITED DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE...
RISK FOR ANY HAIL WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL.
FARTHER S...COMBINATION OF CONTINUED LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW...
MESOSCALE UPLIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND ASCENT IN
DEVELOPING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR JET MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS OVER SE TX/SRN LA...MAINLY LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN. WEAK LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL MITIGATE OVERALL SVR
THREAT. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF 30-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED PERSISTENT AND/OR ROTATING UPDRAFTS
WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE BANDS/CLUSTERS. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN 20-25 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR INVOF
WIND SHIFT LINE.
..CORFIDI/BRIGHT.. 11/24/2008
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