SWODY1
SPC AC 301959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2008
VALID 302000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH AND CNTRL FL...
...FLORIDA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A VERY LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ERN SEABOARD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
ANALYZED BY THE RUC OVER CNTRL FL AND THIS IS LIKELY HELPING TO
SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE LINE ORIENTED NEWD FROM THE FT MEYERS VICINITY.
THE LINE IS LOCATED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT
FURTHER NORTHWEST IN THE FL PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH
MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE LINE
SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN AND CNTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON.
CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D VWPS
CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT 75 KT OF WSWLY FLOW AT 6 KM LARGELY DUE TO THE
STRONG FLOW AROUND A MID-LEVEL JET CENTERED IN SW GA. THIS IS
CREATING VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE ORGANIZED
LINE SEGMENT. AT LOW-LEVELS...REGIONAL WSR-88 VWPS SUGGEST 0-1 KM
SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH LCL HEIGHTS
AROUND 400 METERS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE A TORNADO THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ROTATING CELL
ELEMENTS IN THE LINE ITSELF. HOWEVER...A TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR IF A
CELL AHEAD OF THE LINE CAN INTENSIFY...ROTATE AND PERSIST. IN
ADDITION...THE MIAMI WSR-88 VWP SHOWS 30 TO 40 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE SUGGESTING ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY AS THE
LINE MOVES INTO SOUTH FL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN THE
EARLY TO MID EVENING AS THE LINE MOVES INTO COASTAL WATERS AROUND
MIAMI.
...ERN NC...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD WITH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED IN
VIRGINAL AND THE CAROLINAS. A RAINSHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST
PLUME IS LOCATED ACROSS ERN SC AND ECNTRL NC. THIS WILL HAMPER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST ACROSS FAR ERN NC...RUC
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS WEAK INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH
VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE MOREHEAD CITY WSR-88D VWP
MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN INITIATE
AHEAD OF THE RAINSHIELD. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THIS SCENARIO.
..BROYLES.. 11/30/2008
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