SWODY1
SPC AC 240041
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2008
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER OH VALLEY INTO ARKLATEX...
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DEVELOPING
SEWD. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION TONIGHT WHILE
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD THROUGH
ERN KS INTO WRN PARTS OF OK/TX WILL CONTINUE EWD/SEWD WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO ARKLATEX BY MONDAY
MORNING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND GPS IPW DATA SHOW MOISTURE STEADILY
INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX INTO ERN OK/WRN AR ALONG AND S OF
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT OVER
N-CNTRL OK ESEWD INTO CNTRL MS. SWLY LLJ OBSERVED FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT /EVEN
INTENSIFY/ WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE NEWD FLUX OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS. THIS PROCESS IS OCCURRING BENEATH A
PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ABOVE 600 MB /PER 00Z SHV AND LIT SOUNDINGS/
WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY LIMITING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO ONLY A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER.
HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF MIDLEVEL
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A NET COOLING OF THIS WARM LAYER
WITH ELEVATED TSTMS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER
24/06Z WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH LLJ AXIS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT
MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST.
..MEAD.. 11/24/2008
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