SWODY2
SPC AC 020451
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA/SHORT WAVE
IMPULSES WITHIN A STRONG PACIFIC POLAR JET WILL MAINTAIN AND SUPPORT
EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKIES...THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN... AHEAD OF A
STRONGER IMPULSE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST.
THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...AND A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING SURFACE RIDGING UPSTREAM OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BENEATH THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH JETS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WILL PRECLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL INLAND RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE. AND...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS LOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
...SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS...
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...AHEAD OF A LINGERING SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. BUT...THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED
NEAR AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS.
..KERR.. 11/02/2008
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