SWODY2
SPC AC 220540
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2008
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH LOCATED FROM MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN SWD INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SEWD AND EXTEND
FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE STRONGEST UVV/S WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PORTION
OF THE TROUGH...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND SHOULD STRETCH
ROUGHLY FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SSWWD THROUGH AR AND INTO
ERN/SRN TX BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
...ARKLATEX NEWD INTO THE WRN LOWER OH VALLEY...
CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE...LOCATED IN THE
CAROLINAS...WILL STRENGTHEN THE SLY FLOW AND ADVECT MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE NWD INTO TX/OK DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WILL INDUCE A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN TX/OK LATE SUNDAY...AND THEN EXPAND NEWD INTO THE
TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER JET/LARGE SCALE LIFTING SHOULD PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. A RELATIVELY COOL AND
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE PARCELS WILL BE LIFTED
FROM AROUND 900 MB...WITH MUCAPES RANGING AROUND 100-300 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG AND VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN DEEP
LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT A SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..IMY.. 11/22/2008
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