SWODY2
SPC AC 280529
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CST THU NOV 27 2008
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GULF COAST...
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY2 PERIOD. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE FORECAST VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND LIKELY RELUCTANCE OF MEANINGFUL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
TO WORK NWD BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE CNTRL GULF COAST. SFC DEW POINTS
WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE LOWER 60S EXCEPT NEAR THE WATER.
INLAND...WLY FLOW REGIME WILL SEVERELY LIMIT BUOYANCY AS MEAGER
MOISTURE AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ATOP COOLER AIRMASS AS FAR NORTH AS
I-20 OVER PORTIONS OF MS AND AL NEAR THE WARM FRONT. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS GIVEN ROBUST
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER ANY REAL THREAT FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS
WILL OCCUR MOSTLY WITHIN 50-100MI OF THE COAST WITHIN NARROW WARM
SECTOR. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG HEATING IT APPEARS WARM ADVECTION
WILL INITIALLY DRIVE AN E-W BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR/NORTH OF WARM
FRONT. THE GREATER THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH
ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS
MS/LA...WITH PROGRESSION EWD ALONG THE GULF COAST INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE THE GREATEST
RISK WITH THIS FRONTAL CONVECTION.
..DARROW.. 11/28/2008
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