SWODY2
SPC AC 241722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST MON NOV 24 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- INITIALLY ANALYZED OVER NWRN
ONT N OF MN -- IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS MID-UPPER OH VALLEY
DAY-1...THEN PIVOT NWD ACROSS WRN NY AND SERN ONT AREA DAY-2 AS LOW
LEVEL CYCLONE OCCLUDES AND BECOMES STACKED WITH VORTEX ALOFT.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW -- NOW ANALYZED INVOF MI/INDIANA LINE -- IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS LE AND BECOME COLLOCATED WITH
MID-UPPER LOW. OCCLUSION TRIPLE-POINT LOW MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY OVER
ERN NY OR SERN NEW ENGLAND DURING DAY. SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW
ANALYZED FROM INDIANA SWWD ACROSS SERN AR TO MID-UPPER TX COASTAL
PLAIN -- SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS WRN/NRN GULF...AND EWD OFFSHORE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
ALTHOUGH SFC HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FL
PENINSULA AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LACK
OF CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE TSTM THREAT. FARTHER
NE...STRONGEST PREFRONTAL BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER
RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM WATERS...KEEPING THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER
ATLANTIC.
FARTHER NW...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER NERN PACIFIC BETWEEN 140W-150W. THIS TROUGH IS FCST TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS WA AND INTO NRN ROCKIES BETWEEN 26/00Z-26/12Z. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING OF LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT WITHIN RELATIVELY SHALLOW LAYER
ABOVE SFC. PRIND TSTM POTENTIAL IS TOO ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL FOR GEN
THUNDER AREA ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2008
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