SWODY2
SPC AC 221728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2008
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ORE...IS EXPECTED TO
PHASE WITH WRN CANADA/NRN ROCKIES TROUGH SUNDAY AS THESE SYSTEMS
AMPLIFY SEWD...REACHING THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.
STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
OH VALLEY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E/SEWD FROM
THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES SSWWD THROUGH AR TO CENTRAL TX BY 12Z MONDAY.
...ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
A SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE OZARKS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING /50+ KT/ OF THE LLJ IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
FROM ARKLATEX TO LOWER OH VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER HEIGHT
FALLS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE MIDWEST WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION EXTENDING NEWD FROM
ERN TX AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL AID IN LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION.
THERMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS FOR DAY 2 INDICATES UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM ERN TX/LA THROUGH THE OZARKS TO LOWER
OH VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION CLOUD
ELEMENTS AND MICROPHYSICS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHTNING. THE 12Z
NAM/09Z NAMKF AND SREF SUGGEST THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO ERODE THE MID LEVEL WARM LAYER CURRENTLY OBSERVED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. TO LOWER OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...IF
STRONGER FORCING DOES DEVELOP AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z GFS DUE TO
GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THEN COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ATOP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION WOULD
SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS FROM ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
..PETERS.. 11/22/2008
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