SWODY2
SPC AC 151655
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE
DAY TWO PERIOD WITH RIDGING IN THE W. EMBEDDED...STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INITIALLY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL
DE-AMPLIFY/WEAKEN WHILE RAPIDLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IN IT/S
WAKE...A DRY...STABLE...CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.
...ERN NEW ENGLAND...
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ALONG COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT A STRONGLY FORCED
CONVECTIVE BAND PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF ME DURING THE DAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT NEAR SATURATED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL YIELD A WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
HOWEVER...THESE DATA DO SUGGEST THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
RATHER SHALLOW DUE TO POUNCED INVERSION ABOVE 600 MB. AS
SUCH...ONLY THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL LIKELY GROW
DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING FORMATION.
...GREAT LAKES...
EXCHANGE OF HEAT/MOISTURE FROM THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM LAKES INTO
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT WEAK AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
GIVEN THE COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS THAT MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE WATER. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS
TOO MINIMAL FOR INCLUSION OF A GENERAL THUNDER AREA.
..MEAD.. 11/15/2008
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