MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2346

ACUS11 KWNS 021641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021641
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-021915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CST SUN NOV 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN UT...EXTREME SWRN WY...EXTREME SERN
ID.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021641Z - 021915Z

TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS
NWRN UT...AS FRONT MOVES EWD 30-35 KT ACROSS SALT LAKE REGION AND
INTO WASATCH RANGE. STG NONCONVECTIVE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA
WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED UPON BY CONVECTIVE GUSTS. THIS MAY YIELD
DAMAGE IN SOME LOCALES...ESPECIALLY ALONG WRN SLOPES WITH GREATEST
DIRECT EXPOSURE.

BKN LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD POSE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
ACROSS CORRIDOR FROM PVU NWD TO VICINITY ID BORDER THROUGH ABOUT
1830Z. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST INFLOW-LAYER
DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTION ALONG FRONT...DUE TO THICK CLOUD
COVER LIMITING DIABATIC SFC HEATING. STILL...MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AND RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST LARGE
SCALE ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT MAY MOVE OVER AREA JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT...AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORING TSTM POTENTIAL AS NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVER NV PIVOTS ENEWD. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT ACCOMPANYING STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
MLCAPES 200-300 J/KG...ATOP SHALLOW INVERTED-V PROFILE RELATED TO
WEAK HEATING UNDER CLOUD COVER. ANY ACTIVITY SURVIVING PASSAGE
ACROSS WASATCH RANGE MAY PRODUCE GUSTS INTO RELATIVELY
DRY...SOMEWHAT MORE STRONGLY HEATED AND BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS
OF NERN UT/SWRN WY AND EXTREME SERN ID. HOWEVER...DRY SFC DEW
POINTS WILL RENDER BUOYANCY VERY MRGL...GENERALLY AOB 100 J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 11/02/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...

LAT...LON 39661349 41461250 42171253 42311096 42051012 40850979
40041034 39701191 39641312 39661349

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