MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2392

ACUS11 KWNS 152315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152315
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-160115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND/NJ/DEL/ERN VA AND
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/ERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 934...935...936...

VALID 152315Z - 160115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
934...935...936...CONTINUES.

ISOLATED SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
TORNADO WATCHES 934/935/936.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO REVEAL A LOW CAPE/VERY HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
ALONG THE NC/MID-ATLANTIC COASTS AND NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- THE STRONGEST OF WHICH CONTAINED WITHIN
A NARROW/PERSISTENT LINE FROM ERN NY SWD ACROSS NJ/DELAWARE/ERN VA
INTO ERN NC -- CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT.

WHILE A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEGREE OF BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED -- BUT POSSIBLY
DAMAGING -- SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS INCLUDING TORNADOES.

WATCH 934 AND 935 ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 16/00Z AND 16/01Z
RESPECTIVELY. WHILE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT -- ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE LINE -- CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
COAST...THE STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE VACATED THE COAST COMPLETELY
IN SOME AREAS PRIOR TO THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME. THIS APPEARS
PARTICULARLY TRUE ACROSS ERN NC. WHERE A SMALL INLAND THREAT WILL
PERSIST BEYOND THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF THESE WATCHES...A
LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME OF THE WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

FARTHER N /WITHIN WW 936/ THE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING E OF THE
WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS SERN NY. THIS WILL LIKELY
REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE SHORTLY.

..GOSS.. 11/15/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...MHX...
ILM...

LAT...LON 34527794 37147648 40327493 42727481 43107411 43167206
43007113 41307135 40427345 36957584 35497534 34707568
34407624 34307748 34527794

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