MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2393

ACUS11 KWNS 160506
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160506
MAZ000-160700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2393
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 160506Z - 160700Z

CONVECTION INCREASING OFF THE SRN COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY
BRUSH FAR SERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH
SEVERE LEVELS...WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE -- PER LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA -- OFF THE COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND E
AND SE OF LONG ISLAND AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE UPPER JET SHIFTING ACROSS THIS REGION. WHILE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS STABLE AND THUS STORMS
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...DEGREE OF SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. INDEED...STORM ROUGHLY 25 MILES SSW OF
NANTUCKET APPEARS TO BE WEAKLY-ROTATING.

WHILE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE-BASED WIND GUSTS
AT OR ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS -- OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO -- ARE
UNLIKELY...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION AS IT BRUSHES
SERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS COULD SUPPORT A VERY
LOW-END SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 11/16/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...

LAT...LON 42187045 42186989 41836967 41216977 41087039 41207096
41737088 42187045

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.