SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282116
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-282315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2398
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND PARTS OF SE LA THROUGH SRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 282116Z - 282315Z
A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AND PERHAPS ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE...AND A
WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST
OTHERWISE.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON A CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW/FRONT PERSISTS FROM ERN
TX THROUGH CNTRL LA INTO SRN MS AND SRN AL. PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SRN MS HAS BEGUN A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MODEST COLD POOL TO ITS NORTH. A BROAD ZONE OF MODEST WSWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH
LIFT MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF CONSOLIDATED BOUNDARY. DIABATIC
HEATING WITHIN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS RESULTED IN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE STORM INFLOW...AND STORM INTENSITY HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ROTATION CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED PRIMARILY
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS TRAINING ALONG THE FRONT. THE MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS HAVE SHIFTED INTO SRN MS WHERE DEEP ASCENT HAS BEEN ENHANCED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF EWD ADVANCING UPPER IMPULSE. FARTHER WEST...THE
LIFT APPEARS MORE SHALLOW WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IMPLIED IN
WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE.
BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LIMITED HODOGRAPH SIZE AND A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY
CONTINUE TO SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SRN AL WERE INSTABILITY IS
VERY MARGINAL.
..DIAL.. 11/28/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31428827 30958890 30469181 31019278 31689256 31799029
31878866 31428827
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