MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2404

ACUS11 KWNS 302053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302053
FLZ000-302300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CST SUN NOV 30 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 940...

VALID 302053Z - 302300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 940 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SRN FL.

A LINE OF STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES EXTENDS FROM NEAR MELBOURNE SWWD TO NEAR NAPLES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND IS
MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KT WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITHIN THE LINE
MOVE RAPIDLY NE. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH FL REMAINS MODEST DUE
PRIMARILY TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A CLOUDY BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE SPECIAL 18Z RAOB FROM MIAMI SHOWED 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 7C
WITH 5.1 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. IT APPEARS THE COLDER MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN LARGE ALONG THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS NEXT
FEW HOURS ALONG WITH 50-60 KT BULK SHEAR. THE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

..DIAL.. 11/30/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON 25988162 26718104 27728054 27598031 26778014 26058023
25458041 25208064 25238095 25468112 25758132 25988162

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