SWODY1
SPC AC 291248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST MON DEC 29 2008
VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL EXIST FROM COAST-TO-COAST THIS
PERIOD WITH STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT OCCURRING WITH THREE
DISTINCT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. FROM EAST-TO-WEST THESE FEATURES
INCLUDE 1) THE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NC INTO THE ATLANTIC/GULF
STREAM WATERS...AND THE WEAK TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS NRN FL...2) THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON
THE HEELS OF THE EAST COAST FRONT...AND 3) THE FAST-MOVING PACIFIC
PERTURBATION MOVING FROM THE NW COAST TO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH TUES
MORNING.
...NC/SC COAST AND NRN FL...
LAPSE RATES OVER LAND AREAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR
DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF MORE THAN SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES.
RECENT CG IN SERN NC MAY CONTINUE IN VERY ISOLATED FASHION TO THE
OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING. MORE NUMEROUS TSTMS SHOULD FORM OFF OF
NC/SC COAST LATER TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WARMER MARITIME
AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF STREAM.
A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TRAILING PORTION
OF THE FRONT AS IT SETTLES ACROSS NRN FL. LOCAL HEATING MAY BOOST
MUCAPE ABOVE 200 J/KG BUT LAPSE RATES AND FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
IN THIS AREA APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR A THUNDER AREA AT THIS TIME.
...OFFSHORE PAC NW...
THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SUSTAINED LIGHTNING WILL EXIST OFF THE PAC
NW COAST AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND ASCENT ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD-CORE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A FEW VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM THE CASCADES INLAND TO ID AS STRONG
DYNAMICS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COMBINE WITH LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO SHORT-LIVED TSTMS.
...PLEASE REFER TO EXPERIMENTAL ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTS FOR
OFFSHORE LIGHTNING PROBABILITIES...
..CARBIN.. 12/29/2008
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