SWODY1
SPC AC 120049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST THU DEC 11 2008
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS E-CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA...FROM HUDSON BAY REGION SWD OVER GULF...REINFORCED BY
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. STRONGEST OF THESE IS EVIDENT AS CLOSED LOW
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND RAOB DATA OVER GA. THIS
PERTURBATION IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AND LIFT
NEWD ACROSS CAROLINAS/VA.
ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- ANALYZED AT 23Z OVER NWRN NC -- WILL
MOVE/REDEVELOP NEWD OVER MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH LEADING COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS CAROLINAS AND FARTHER OFFSHORE
FL. REINFORCING/SECONDARY COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY ANALYZED FROM LOW
SWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL GA AND APALACHEE BAY -- ALSO SHOULD MOVE EWD
OVER REMAINDER SERN GA AND MOST OF FL PENINSULA THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD. WARM FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM N-CENTRAL NC NEWD ACROSS CAPE
CHARLES REGION AND OFFSHORE DELMARVA -- IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NWD
OVER LAND BEFORE PASSAGE OF SFC LOW...THEN MOVE EWD AS COLD FRONT S
OF LOW.
...NC TO MID-ATLANTIC...
MRGL SVR POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS AMIDST STG WARM SECTOR SHEAR
PROFILES...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY DURING NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH CONVECTIVELY UNFAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
1. SFC DIABATIC COOLING
2. STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM EXTENSIVE WARM-FRONTAL PRECIP IN WHAT
REMAINS OF WARM SECTOR AND
3. LOW LEVEL CAA AND LOSS OF CONVERGENCE BEHIND INITIAL COLD FROPA.
REF REMAINDER WWS 953-954 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE
DETAILED NEAR-TERM FCST OF SVR THREAT.
GEN TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE ISOLATED/SPORADIC OVER COASTAL AREAS FROM
MID-ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...IN ZONE OF ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTRIBUTING TO MRGL ELEVATED MUCAPE N OF
WARM FRONT. CG LIGHTNING HAS STOPPED BENEATH COLD CORE REGION OF
UPPER LOW...AND ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL THEREWITH WILL BE VERY
CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS THIS LOW DEVOLVES
RAPIDLY INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AND EJECTS NEWD.
..EDWARDS.. 12/12/2008
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