SWODY3
SPC AC 230827
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIKELY TO QUICKLY
ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN IN EARNEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
...WESTERN STATES...
IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...AMPLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/WEAK BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA.
...ARKLATEX TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE...
AIDED BY A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A DRAMATICALLY INCREASING LATE
PERIOD WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME SHOULD LEAD
TO INCREASING TSTMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY FROM THE
ARKLATEX VICINITY TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH MOISTURE
QUICKLY RETURNING ATOP A COOL/STABLE SURFACE LAYER...INCREASING
ELEVATED BUOYANCY AMIDST A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT SOME HAIL POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PERCEIVED
MARGINAL/LATE PERIOD NATURE OF THIS RISK AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS JUNCTURE PRECLUDES SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..GUYER.. 12/23/2008
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