SWOD48
SPC AC 030807
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CST WED DEC 03 2008
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONSISTENT THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 5 /SUN.
12-7/...WITH THE ERN U.S. TROUGH MOVING EWD AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
WRN ATLANTIC...WHILE A SECOND TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 5.
BEYOND DAY 5...MODELS BEGIN TO EXHIBIT INCREASING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING WRN TROUGH. BOTH MODELS BRING A
FRONT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE ERN U.S. DAY 6...BUT THE
ECMWF INITIATES SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS INVOF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
ALONG THE FRONT DAY 7. THIS LOW THEN SHIFTS NNEWD ACROSS THE TN AND
INTO THE OH VALLEYS DAY 8. SHOULD THIS CYCLOGENESIS OCCUR...SOME
SEVERE THREAT WOULD APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS AS
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS SPREADS NWD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE FRONT
SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
DAY 7. THUS...WITH APPARENT PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WITHIN THE MODELS
STARTING ROUGHLY DAY 6...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL
THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 12/03/2008
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