SWOD48
SPC AC 290857
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 AM CST MON DEC 29 2008
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 7...DURING
WHICH TIME LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT
APPEARS LIKELY.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. DAY 4
/THU. 1-1/...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EMERGES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH SECONDARY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS FORECAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS ALONG A TRAILING COLD
FRONT...SOME MOISTURE RETURN AND LIMITED DESTABILIZATION APPEAR
POSSIBLE -- SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS EVEN A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT.
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH MAY EMERGE INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 6
/SAT. 1-3/...WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AGAIN POSSIBLE -- INVOF
KS/OK. ATTM HOWEVER...INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES RENDER THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT LESS CERTAIN THAN THE FIRST.
OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THUS PRECLUDING THE INITIATION OF A THREAT AREA.
..GOSS.. 12/29/2008
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