SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190046
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST THU DEC 18 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...NRN MO...CNTRL/SRN IA...MUCH
OF CNTRL IL INTO NWRN IND
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 190046Z - 190645Z
AN INTENSIFYING WINTER STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT ICING AS WELL AS
HEAVY SLEET THROUGH THE EVENING FROM NEB/KS EWD ACROSS MO/IL INTO
IND. THE MOST DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN MO...SRN
IA...AND CNTRL IL WITH ICING RATES OF 0.10-0.25 IN/HR POSSIBLE.
WINTER PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY EXPAND ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND MO VALLEY AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 00Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FREEZING LINE EXTENDING FROM CNTRL KS
EWD TO JUST S OF KANSAS CITY...COLUMBIA MO AND INTO ST LOUIS.
PRECIPITATION RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE GENERALLY ALONG AND N
OF THE SFC FREEZING LINE AS IT SHIFTS NWD TO AN FNB TO UIN LINE BY
06Z.
STRONG...DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NOSE OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL
COMBINE WITH ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF
THUNDERSLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WITH THUNDER. 00Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWED
OVER 300 J/KG MUCAPE ROOTED AROUND 850 MB SUGGESTING EVEN SOME SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE. THE LARGEST QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SRN
IA...NRN MO...INTO CNTRL IL WHERE RATES OF 0.25 IN/HR ARE LIKELY AT
TIMES.
..JEWELL.. 12/19/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 41149774 42079622 42419397 42529182 42088930 41438702
40828605 40198582 39858653 39518757 39448830 39408956
39289063 39329454 38999562 39019640 39199747 39669845
40309818 41149774
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