SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242321
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-250045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0521 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF AL INTO SERN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 242321Z - 250045Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
MAINLY LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH
01-02Z. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THEREAFTER AND A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN
INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY ALONG COLD FRONT FROM N OF GAD TO W OF
TCL AND WITHIN FREE WARM SECTOR NE OF GZH AND SE OF PIB.
MODIFICATION OF RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE
CONDITIONS YIELDS MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG OVER
SERN MS/SRN AL TO LESS THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ALONG COLD FRONT
OVER NRN/CNTRL AL. DESPITE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...CURRENT VWPS
OVER AL INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG WITH
0-6 KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KT AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT. AS
SUCH...ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN
REGIONS WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS BEING MAXIMIZED.
THIS SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 01-02Z AS GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE /I.E. SWLY 35-45 KT LLJ/ WILL
CONCURRENTLY DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS...
EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN NEAR GROUND SHEAR.
..MEAD.. 12/24/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31018921 32998778 34198624 34118573 33358528 32328544
31128666 30698744 30598873 31018921
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