SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260017
UTZ000-WYZ000-AZZ000-260345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CST THU DEC 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...UTAH
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 260017Z - 260345Z
HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AT OR ABOVE 1 TO 2" PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE WASATCH MOUNTAINS TO SCNTRL UT THIS EVENING.
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SWD/SEWD ALONG THE WEST
COAST...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY MAXIMA PRESENTLY OVER WRN ORE
AND SCNTRL CA WILL PROGRESS EWD REACHING THE GREAT BASIN LATER THIS
EVENING. AT 23 UTC THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF
MLD...TO ENV...TO JUST EAST OF TPH...AND EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE
FRONT THROUGH SLC BETWEEN 01 AND 02 UTC. FARTHER SOUTH...A SURFACE
LOW IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA AND JUST NORTHEAST OF TPH MAY SLOW ITS
EWD PROGRESSION INTO SRN UT.
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REACHES THE WASATCH...LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
NWLY INITIATING A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WASATCH RANGE.
PASSAGE OF THE 700 MB TROUGH BY 06 UTC ENSURES SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW LATER THIS EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES AT OR ABOVE 2" PER HOUR
FROM THE WASATCH TO CNTRL UT. FARTHER SOUTH...STRONG FORCING FOR UVV
WILL INCREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SCNTRL CA
REACHES SRN NV BY 03 UTC...AND THE EXIT REGION OF A 95 KT MID LEVEL
JET CORE PUSHES INTO NCNTRL AZ. STRONG PREFRONTAL SWLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE THROUGH 06 UTC WILL ADD AN ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AS WELL. CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM INTO SWRN UT...AS MUCAPES REMAIN BETWEEN 100 TO
200 J/KG THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING...WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE SWRN UT
MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED 1" TO 2" PER HOUR.
..BRIGHT.. 12/26/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...RIW...FGZ...SLC...VEF...
LAT...LON 37281384 38481323 39141277 39711216 40261197 40651191
41331185 41781166 41891085 41271020 40750999 39781027
39081072 38081156 37511169 36901217 36721251 36751333
37051376 37281384
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