MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2525

ACUS11 KWNS 270047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270047
MOZ000-KSZ000-270145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 270047Z - 270145Z

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 03 OR 04Z ACROSS DISCUSSION
AREA...LIKELY REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

00Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW NE OF RSL AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THIS FEATURE
GENERALLY EWD TOWARD MKC BY 06Z. AS THIS OCCURS...ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY AND THROUGH WRN INTO
CNTRL KS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH SGF AND LIT INDICATE THAT
CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER SINCE 12Z. HOWEVER...LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 550-750 MB HAS WARMED
WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A CAP ACROSS
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR.

PLAN VIEW PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
GRADUALLY BACKING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS IN THE OZARK PLATEAU
REGION IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE ROCKIES. THIS PROCESS IS EFFECTIVELY SUPPORTING A MORE NWD FLUX
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS
CONTINUED MOISTENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SUFFICIENTLY
ERODE CAP SUCH THAT TSTMS ARE LIKELY ALONG OR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY
03 OR 04Z.

VERTICAL SHEAR BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WHILE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS.

..MEAD.. 12/27/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37559723 38919704 39589628 39699468 39229374 38369381
37459391 37019493 37129668 37559723

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