MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2527

ACUS11 KWNS 270515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270515
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-270645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO / SERN IA / W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 270515Z - 270645Z

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT SYNOPTIC
WARM FRONT IS STEADILY LIFTING NWD THROUGH NRN MO AND CNTRL IL WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND DEWPOINTS
INCREASING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY.
NE-SW ORIENTED BANDS OF TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED FROM ERN KS/WRN MO NEWD TO NEAR CDJ AS OF 0455Z WITHIN THE
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.

REGIONAL PROFILER AND VWP PLAN VIEW PLOTS SHOW THAT A BROAD AND
INTENSE LLJ HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SRN PLAINS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE NEWD FLUX OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH...EXPECT TSTMS TO EXPAND NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN IA INTO
WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF IL WHERE LLJ IS FOCUSING STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT.

MODIFYING RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS
SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A VERY SHALLOW
NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. HOWEVER...ONLY SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT WOULD SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS.
GIVEN THE STRONG AMBIENT SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME
HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INTENSE...
SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

..MEAD.. 12/27/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 40009370 40899285 41489200 41589080 41148974 40338984
39749063 39459150 39209208 39799259 40009370

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