SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300046
NDZ000-MTZ000-300445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2547
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST MON DEC 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT AND NWRN ND
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 300046Z - 300445Z
HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THIS EVENING ACROSS NERN MT
AND NWRN ND...WITH RATES FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES/HOUR EXPECTED.
AT 00Z...A COMPACT...BUT INTENSE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WAS LOCATED IN
FAR WRN MT....WITH A 120 KT HIGH LEVEL JET LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM
NWRN MT...NEAR GPI...SEWD INTO THE SERN CORNER OF MT.
THE GGW WIND PROFILE ALREADY SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL TURNING/WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER 3-4 KM...AND THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET TO NEAR 50 KT. THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS NERN MT/NWRN ND WILL BE ENHANCED WITH THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THEREFORE...
HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NERN MT AND
NWRN ND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES INDICATE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL AID
IN SNOW RATES NEAR 2 INCHES/HOUR.
..IMY.. 12/30/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...
LAT...LON 46840429 47340617 48210712 48660719 49000672 48720338
48170127 47430116 46800202 46840429
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