SWODY1
SPC AC 050039
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST SUN JAN 04 2009
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
WSWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM TX TO THE SERN STATES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SWRN U.S./NRN BAJA TROUGH BEGIN
TO SPREAD EWD...AND HEIGHTS TIGHTEN SOME BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE GULF
AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL
ADVANCE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WHILE THE SRN EXTENT MOVES
MORE SLOWLY EWD...REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH CENTRAL AL
TO SERN LA AND THE NWRN GULF BY 12Z MONDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTMS AS THIS BOUNDARY
MOVES EWD THROUGH MS INTO AL AND SRN LA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
LAPSE RATES PER 00Z SOUNDINGS AND LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING OF PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AT 30-35 KT GIVEN STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT...THE WEAK INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT IS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
..PETERS.. 01/05/2009
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