SWODY1
SPC AC 040043
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2009
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN LA THROUGH GULF COASTAL REGION...
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONSISTING PRIMARILY OF FORWARD PROPAGATING
MULTICELLS EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL AL SWWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
THESE STORMS MAY POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL
ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AS THEY
CONTINUE EAST AND BEGIN TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BY MID
EVENING.
FARTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS ERN LA...POCKETS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES RESULTED IN AN AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY IN
WAKE OF MORNING MCS. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER NE LA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN EWD MIGRATING VORT MAX ARE WEAKENING AS STRONGER FORCING
ATTENDING THIS FEATURE MOVES TOWARD CNTRL MS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS BEEN OVERTURNED BY THE MCS.
OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER SW ACROSS SE LA WITHIN A ZONE OF
LIFT SUPPORTED BY A 30-35 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY THE MCS. THE 00Z RAOBS FROM LAKE CHARLES
AND NEW ORLEANS SHOW 7-7.5 MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING THESE
STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT OF MAINLY HAIL THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY MID EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTS NE OF THIS REGION AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE.
..DIAL.. 01/04/2009
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