SWODY1
SPC AC 230545
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST THU JAN 22 2009
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ARKLATEX...
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER DEEP WLY FLOW WITHIN BASE OF MEAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE A NARROW ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE GRADUAL MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN
ELEVATED BUOYANCY ALONG/NORTH OF STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES SWD
ACROSS AR INTO NRN LA. FRONTAL ASCENT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR PARCELS ATOP COOLER AIRMASS WHERE MUCAPE
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG. GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER 06Z.
...CNTRL CA...
EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK ACROSS THIS
REGION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1.5-6KM LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
TO AROUND 6.5 C/KM...LIKELY ADEQUATE FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN
FAVORED ZONE OF ASCENT. IF CLOUD DEPTHS CAN ATTAIN HEIGHTS NEAR 500
MB THEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING COULD BE OBSERVED WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
..DARROW.. 01/23/2009
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