SWODY1
SPC AC 261607
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CST MON JAN 26 2009
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
COLD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH GREAT BASIN ATTM WILL SHIFT EWD TO
EXTEND FROM NRN HI PLAINS TO AZ BY 12Z TUE. STRONG POLAR JET MAX
WILL MOVE FROM SRN CA TO SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. MODIFIED RETURN OF
GULF MOISTURE UNDERWAY SRN PLAINS AND IS BEING LIFTED ACROSS THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT HAS SPREAD SWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY
WWD TO NRN TX.
STEEP LAPSE RATES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF STRONG POLAR JET WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EWD FROM SRN UT/NRN AZ TO ROCKIES TODAY.
WHILE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS MEAGER...HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO SUFFICIENTLY DEEP UPDRAFTS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THAT ELEVATED CAPE WILL INCREASE ABOVE
THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASS TONIGHT FROM ERN OK/NCENTRAL TX ENEWD
ACROSS AR INTO SRN MO. WHILE AMOUNT OF CAPE WILL BE LIMITED...LESS
THAN 300 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING POLAR JET MAX AND TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
..HALES.. 01/26/2009
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