SWODY1
SPC AC 060054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST MON JAN 05 2009
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO NWRN MEXICO/BAJA REGION...WILL PROGRESS EWD REACHING THE
LOWER MO VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET
STREAK DIG SEWD TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT. EARLY EVENING
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GULF
NEWD INTO SRN LA /VERMILION PARISH/ AND THEN THROUGH SRN MS TO
CENTRAL AL AND NRN GA. THE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY FROM ERN MS INTO
AL SHOULD MOVE NWD OVERNIGHT TO NRN MS/AL AS A SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS
FROM THE TX COAST TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
...LOWER MS VALLEY TO SRN APPALACHIANS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SEVERAL WEAK SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSES
TRACKING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WITH ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE FORECAST TO MOVE FROM MEXICO
TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. ASCENT WITH EACH OF THESE
IMPULSES COMBINED WITH INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ
SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SPORADIC TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY N OF THE
FRONT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD REACHING E
TX/LOWER MS VALLEY BY 12Z SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION/
EMBEDDED TSTMS ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE FRONT FROM SE TX/LA TO NRN
AL. MODELS SUGGEST MUCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE OVER SRN LA
TOWARD 12Z WHERE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
..PETERS.. 01/06/2009
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